Thursday, July 02, 2020

SEATTLE, June 24, 2020 /PRNewswire-HISPANIC PR WIRE/ -- The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington is forecasting nearly 388,300 people will die from COVID-19 in Latin American and Caribbean nations by October 1.  Brazil is expected to exceed 166,000 deaths and Mexico 88,000. Six other nations are each predicted to exceed 10,000: Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guatemala, and Peru. In contrast, 15 nations, including Paraguay, Uruguay, and Belize are each expected to have fewer than 1,000 deaths.

"Several Latin American countries are facing explosive trajectories, while others are containing infections effectively," said IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray. "I cannot overemphasize the imperative of mitigation measures, such as mask wearing and social distancing, especially since South American nations are facing increasing infections due to seasonality of COVID-19, an important factor contributing to the transmission of the virus."

IHME's new forecasts model deaths from the virus if countries impose social distancing mandates for six weeks at the point when deaths reach 8 per million people, comparing that to a scenario if no action is taken. The percentage of people wearing masks when leaving their home is also a key consideration.

"These factors are vital in our projections and highlight how many lives can be saved," Murray said. 

He noted that the number of deaths is certain to continue to rise in nations where mandates on mask wearing and social distancing are relaxed. In contrast, Murray stated transmission might be reduced by as much as 50% in communities where individuals are wearing masks when leaving their homes, either voluntarily or by mandate.

The forecasts by nation: 

Southern, Tropical, and Andean Latin America

  • Argentina: 24,721 deaths (range of 9,386 to 61,163)
  • Chile: 25,344 deaths (range of 18,094 to 34,509)
  • Uruguay: 340 deaths (range of 52 to 2,075)
  • Bolivia: 7,334 deaths (range of 3,564 to 13,645)
  • Ecuador: 20,260 deaths (range of 16,069 to 27,103)
  • Peru: 36,210 deaths (range of 28,145 to 48,617)
  • Brazil: 166,362 deaths (range of 135,538 to 208,079)
  • Paraguay: 271 deaths (range of 27 to 1,952)

Central America and Mexico

  • Colombia: 35,314 deaths (range of 14,640 to 81,942)
  • Costa Rica: 39 deaths (range of 17 to 120)
  • El Salvador: 4,357 deaths (range of 668 to 15,546)
  • Guatemala: 10,090 deaths (range of 3,874 to 22,071)
  • Honduras: 4,958 deaths (range of 881 to 14,207)
  • Mexico: 88,160 deaths (range of 67,967 to 120,023)
  • Nicaragua: 280 deaths (range of 72 to 2,276)
  • Panama: 2,802 deaths (range of 1,315 to 5,895)
  • Venezuela: 2,893 deaths (range of 84 to 29,295)

The Caribbean

  • Antigua and Barbuda: 10 deaths (range of 2 to 74)
  • Bahamas: 26 deaths (range of 10 to 121)
  • Barbados: 46 deaths (range of 8 to 282)
  • Belize: 20 deaths (range of 3 to 143)
  • Cuba: 306 deaths (range of 180 to 663)
  • Dominican Republic: 5,665 deaths (range of 1,731 to 15,650)
  • Guyana: 14 deaths (range of 12 to 24)
  • Haiti: 1,377 deaths (range of 202 to 5,919)
  • Jamaica: 68 deaths (range of 17 to 364)
  • Suriname: 698 deaths (range of 28 to 2,541)
  • Trinidad and Tobago: 440 deaths (range of 13 to 6,868)
  • Puerto Rico: 286 deaths (range of 185 to 605)
  • United States Virgin Islands: 7 deaths (range of 6 to 11)

The new death projections and other information, such as hospital resources usage, are available at https://covid19.healthdata.org.

NEW YORK (AP) — After voicing support for Woody Allen and criticizing cancel culture, Spike Lee apologized Saturday for words he said were “wrong.” In an interview Friday on the New York radio station WOR 710, Lee called Allen “a great, great filmmaker.” “This cancel thing is not just Woody. And I think that when we look back on it, (we’re) gonna see that, short of killing somebody, I don’t if you can just erase somebody like they never existed. Woody’s a friend of mine,” said Lee. “I know he’s going through it right now.”

 

NEW YORK (AP) — Gary Phillips, a prize-winning crime novelist from Los Angeles, grew up on TV shows that showed a world nothing like the one he lived in. “I watched them all, ‘Dragnet,’ ‘Adam 12,’ ‘The Wild, Wild West,’ ‘Mannix,’ ‘Cannon,’ ‘Peter Gunn’ reruns and on and on. Now these were white guys and they were tough but fair and even-handed,” he told The Associated Press in a recent email, referring to popular programs mostly from the 1960s and 1970s. “I remember a ‘Dragnet’ episode where tight-ass Joe Friday solved racism among black and white officers in a weekend retreat. But I was a kid growing up in South Central and even then some part of me knew a lot of this was jive. We knew the cops out of Newton and 77th Division policed the ’hood a lot different than shown on TV.”

NEW YORK (AP) — An angry and emotional Dave Chappelle spoke on the killing of George Floyd in a surprise Netflix special, saying America was being punished for its mistreatment of black men. “I don’t mean to get heavy but we got to say something,” said Chappelle, who added that America is enduring “the wrath of God” for a string of police assaults on black men. The special was released Thursday and is streaming free on Netflix’s comedy YouTube channel. It was taken from a show at an outdoor pavilion in Yellow Springs, Ohio, with about 100 attendees on June 6.

Nanci Ryder, a powerful Hollywood publicist and co-founder of BWR Public Relations who became close to such stars as Renée Zellweger and Courteney Cox, died Thursday of Lou Gehrig’s disease in Los Angeles. She was 67. Ryder was diagnosed with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis — or ALS — in 2014. The neurodegenerative disease gradually claimed her ability to walk, talk, eat and move. Her death was announced by publicist Lynda Dorf. Ryder’s clients — including Michael J. Fox, Reese Witherspoon, Viggo Mortensen and Sarah Michelle Gellar — blossomed into close friends. Zellweger thanked Ryder in her best actress acceptance speech when she won the Academy Award for “Judy” earlier this year. Witherspoon called her a “second mother.”